Lula vs. Flavio Bolsonaro: polls point to a margin of roughly 2 points, just like in 2022.
Yet for investors, the stakes may be less dramatic than the headlines suggest:
▪️ A Congress dominated by the center, whoever wins, so alliances will be unavoidable
▪️ A solid economy: unemployment around 5%, growth above 2%, international reserves approaching US$400 billion
▪️ The EU-Mercosur agreement is in force: Brazilian exports to Europe up 30%+
▪️ The real dividing line: international trade, between multilateral openness (China, EU, India) and alignment with Washington
Since the 1990s, Brazil has alternated between left and right without breaking contracts, restricting capital flows or defaulting on its debt.
👉 Full analysis, By Walter de Oliveira Monteiro, in the attached article.
Do you think Sunday’s result will change anything for foreign investors?
